Arizona Expects Continued Job Losses

Arizona Economy Projected to Lose 167,800 Jobs Over 2009-2010 Forecast Period

(Phoenix, AZ) – The Research Administration (RA) of the Arizona Department of Commerce projects a continued loss of nonfarm jobs for the 2009 to 2010 forecast time period with a decrease of 167,800 jobs, or a loss of 6.4 percent.  For 2009, total forecast losses are more than 146,000 jobs, or 5.6 percent, and in 2010, the pace of employment reductions are projected to slow to 0.9 percent, or a loss of 21,600 jobs.

“This is why dramatic action is necessary to fix the economy,” said Governor Jan Brewer.  “The inevitable layoffs by companies’ means continued downward pressure on the state economy. We have to face the reality – this is a problem that requires a multi-year fix to secure the future of Arizona. ”

IHS Global Insight, a major economics forecasting and consulting firm based in Waltham, Mass., projects that national nonfarm employment will decrease 3.6 percent in 2009 and then recover slightly in 2010, and still with a decrease of 0.8 percent.

“The economic downturn has spread beyond the borders of Arizona and the rest of the nation and is impacting the global economy,” said Jack York, Senior Economist at the Arizona Department of Commerce.  “The global scope of this recession is a rare event in world economic history.  The decline in export markets and lending practices will make recovery more difficult.”

Indicators of the continued downturn in the state and national economies include falling levels of employment and output in almost all industries. Continued weakness in the housing market is signaled by rising mortgage foreclosure rates, falling home prices, accumulating unsold inventories and low levels in starts.  As a consequence of worsening economic conditions, consumers and firms have been reducing their spending and use of credit. Most recently, signs of consumer and producer deflation have emerged as a result of the reduced level of expenditures and weak demand.

As lending markets start to thaw, a greater amount of credit is forecast to begin flowing through the state and national economy as a result of recent monetary policy actions by the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve.

Federal government fiscal policy in the form of the economic stimulus program is projected to bolster income and employment.

For detailed information, graphs and charts on Arizona data, please visit www.workforce.az.gov/.

Sosurce: Arizona Dept. of Commerce

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