Phoenix Real Estate

Greater Phoenix Real Estate resale numbers show decline in prices

In October 2008, a total of 8,210 resale homes recorded as sold. Foreclosure activity represented 47 percent (3,745 transactions) and 4,465 traditional market transactions. Foreclosed transactions represent home owners losing their property to successful individual bidders or the lender of record. In September 2008, the spilt was 3,655 foreclosed homes and 4,625 traditional transactions, while recorded sales in October 2007 was 1,145 and 2,825, respectively. Historically, the remaining months of the year tend to post slowing recorded activity. The 2008 year-to-date total is 39,055 traditional sales and 28,755 foreclosures.

Phoenix Real Estate

Foreclosure activity differs throughout the Valley such as 43 percent in Surprise, 32 percent in Tempe and 50 percent in Avondale. Over the next few months, recorded foreclosure activity could decline because of the response to various mortgage modification programs offered by lenders and government agencies to assist troubled homeowners, according to Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University Polytechnic.

“The fundamental issue is that most of the programs are based on the homeowners having decent income to support the modified mortgage,” he said. “However, the extremely weak economy is leading to mounting job losses that could severely impact the ability of a troubled household to have the needed income to qualify for one of the possible programs.

Phoenix Arizona Real Estate

“While many will be helped, other households will confront not only job loss but the loss of their home. Thus, the desire and ability to maintain ownership or to purchase a home is being severely tested, which will further delay any potential recovery,” Butler said.

“The local housing market will continue to be vexed well into the next year by eroding consumer confidence, brought on by a weak economy, possible job losses and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines.”

The declining prices have piqued interest for potential investors and owner-occupants, especially in the lower income ranges. For the traditional market, the median price was $175,000, while the foreclosed properties had a median price of $159,775. For a year ago, the median prices were $250,000 and $218,225, respectively. Investment interest is being driven by the anticipation that home prices will rise again in the next few years. The lower median price is being driven by several forces including the large number of vacant homes, especially in certain neighborhoods.

Since the greater Phoenix area is so large, the median price can range significantly. In North Scottsdale, the median price for a foreclosed property was $495,000, while the traditional market was $525,000. In South Scottsdale the splits were $209,550 and $240,000, respectively.

In Maryvale, traditional transactions were $71,500 and foreclosures were $117,145, while in Union Hills it was $249,950 and $194,340. While lower prices can greatly improve affordability, they can adversely impact many owners and potential sellers whom are watching their limited equity erode, as prices decline to and even below existing debt level. Rapidly declining value can be another issue in some of the mortgage modification programs which require a limited decline in value from the purchase and financing of the home.

Within the 850 total recorded sales, the townhouse/condominium market had 355 foreclosed properties. A year ago the split was 695 for traditional sales and 80 for foreclosed sales. In October 2008, the median price for foreclosed properties was $119,375, while the traditional market stood at $136,750. Last year, the respective splits were $150,720 and $173,500.

The median square footage for a single-family home recorded sold as foreclosed was 1,650 and 1,765 square feet for a market transaction home. For October 2008, Paradise Valley had a median square footage of 3,450 square feet and a median price of $1,324,000. For a year ago, the foreclosed market was at 1,785 square feet and the traditional market stood at 1,750 square feet. In the townhouse/condominium sector, the median square footage for a foreclosed unit was 1,075 square feet (1,175 square feet for year ago), while the traditional market units was 1,185 square feet (1,035 square feet for a year ago).

October  2007 SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES October  2007 CONDOMINIUM/TOWNHOME RESALES
Total   Median  Traditional     Median  Foreclose       Median          Total   Median  Traditional     Median  Foreclose       Median
Price   Sales   Price   Sales   Price                   Price   Sales   Price   Sales   Price
Selected Cities

Phoenix 1,075 $200,000        765 $210,000        310 $186,275 295 $154,500        255 $160,000        40 $130,585
Scottsdale 290     544,950 255     551,000 35      465,590 195     221,600 180     223,600 15      190,255
Chandler 260     279,500 200     275,000 60      288,225 20      165,000 20      165,000
Gilbert 265     275,000 195     275,000 70      275,000 10      175,000 10      175,000
Mesa 410     229,250 305     236,500 105     209,265 70      139,700 60      145,000 10      109,295
Tempe 90      258,630 75      262,500 15      229,500 25      180,750 20      180,750 5       221,455
Avondale 105     213,095 50      217,000 55      207,000
El Mirage 55      178,500 30      177,250 25      181,790
Glendale 300     224,200 195     230,000 105     209,925 45      140,000 40      140,000 5       141,340
Goodyear 90      245,900 50      250,000 40      226,555
Peoria 180     254,030 125     253,000 55      255,000 15      189,950 15      200,000
Sun City 50      162,500 50      162,500 40      116,000 40      116,000
Sun City West 50      239,000 50      239,000 10      152,500 10      152,500
Surprise 200     228,830 120     229,000 80      227,710

County 3,970 $239,900        2,825 $250,000        1,145 $218,225 775 $172,000        695 $173,500        80 $150,720


September  2008       SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES September 2008 CONDOMINIUM/TOWNHOME RESALES
Total   Median  Traditional     Median  Foreclose       Median Total   Median  Traditional     Median  Foreclose       Median
Price   Sales   Price   Sales   Price Price   Sales   Price   Sales   Price
Selected Cities

Phoenix 2,570   136,000 1,215   145,000 1,355   128,950 305     134,130 175     149,000 130     111,490
Scottsdale 345     396,250 255     400,000 90      350,000 145     210,000 90      216,000 55      203,320
Chandler 435     220,000 310     228,465 125     204,600 25      125,500 15      126,000 10      110,570
Gilbert 485     229,965 315     230,000 170     229,500 15      147,200 10      159,850 5       124,775
Mesa 820     163,000 485     170,000 335     149,350 110     105,835 70      125,000 40      99,875
Tempe 110     214,655 80      220,000 30      197,550 40      145,000 25      157,000 15      133,200
Avondale 385     143,470 185     141,250 200     145,250
El Mirage 175     114,750 85      115,000 90      113,875
Glendale 620     158,000 335     167,900 285     149,110 35      94,040  15      91,250  20      94,040
Goodyear 225     155,000 125     161,500 100     152,500
Peoria 375     202,575 210     211,000 165     192,295 20      137,640 15      130,000 5       141,515
Sun City 90      156,750 65      150,000 25      185,500 35      97,680  30      100,000 5       95,360
Sun City West 35      198,480 30      200,000 5       184,065 10      132,500 10      140,000
Surprise 460     165,900 255     166,330 205     165,000

County 8,280   169,000 4,625   180,000 3,655   153,000 800     139,200 500     145,000 300     117,455

October 2008       SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES October  2008 CONDOMINIUM/TOWNHOME RESALES
Total   Median  Traditional     Median  Foreclose       Median Total   Median  Traditional     Median  Foreclose       Median
Price   Sales   Price   Sales   Price Price   Sales   Price   Sales   Price
Selected Cities

Phoenix 2,605 $127,135        1,270 $121,950        1,335 $130,500 325 $115,000        155 $120,450        170 $106,250
Scottsdale 375     426,785 265     441,500 110     413,520 150     205,150 100     219,900 50      178,910
Chandler 405     225,000 250     241,200 155     199,885 40      126,925 20      134,900 20      125,815
Gilbert 455     225,125 290     227,000 165     219,345 15      130,920 10      136,000 5       126,650
Mesa 805     165,515 440     174,000 365     157,375 125     108,000 75      115,000 50      104,120
Tempe 110     219,000 75      240,000 35      175,555 50      146,750 35      143,500 15      147,950
Avondale 320     140,000 160     142,250 160     136,250
El Mirage 185     108,000 85      101,925 100     112,460
Glendale 590     154,950 315     154,650 275     158,450 35      93,100  15      83,000  20      101,120
Goodyear 235     164,000 125     158,000 110     175,270
Peoria 360     199,900 195     214,350 165     184,885 15      155,450 15      157,900
Sun City 70      140,815 55      140,000 15      144,615 30      119,000 25      121,000 5       100,335
Sun City West 45      190,000 40      190,000 5       236,235 10      141,000 10      141,000
Surprise 495     162,000 280     157,250 215     169,570

County 8,210 $167,375        4,465 $175,000        3,745 $159,775 850 $127,500        495 $136,750        355 $119,375

Realty studies

Realty Studies is associated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. Realty Studies collects and analyzes data concerning real estate in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Realty Studies is a comprehensive and objective source of real estate information for private, public and governmental agencies.  Its director, Dr. Jay Q. Butler, may be reached at (480) 727-1300 or e-mail him at Jay.Butler@asu.edu. To subscribe to RSS feed for Realty Studies news, visit http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/rss.html.

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